Electric vehicle (EV) adoption in South Africa and the African continent as a whole may see major acceleration well before 2040.
A recent study shows that increasing affordability, improving infrastructure, and a favourable financing environment could point towards an increase in electric vehicle uptake.
Researchers at ETH Zurich in Switzerland and the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI) collaborated with researchers at several African institutions, which included Stellenbosch University.
Their research looked into the economic viability of electric mobility on the African continent, factoring in the continent’s widespread infrastructure shortcomings and financial barriers.
The researchers analysed over 2,000 locations across 52 African countries, where EVs are charged using dedicated battery-fitted solar power facilities that are independent from their electric grids.
They then made use of optimisation models to compare the total cost of ownership of battery electric vehicles powered by solar off-grid systems to that of fossil-fuelled ones, ignoring policy-induced cost distortions.
Research also looked at how access to financing in a range of economic climates can have an effect on the growth rate of EV adoption on the continent.
While much of the study focused on the effects of decarbonising road passenger transport and the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions globally, it highlighted important economic data.
This data indicated that the use of battery electric vehicles with off-grid solar chargers will have lower costs well before 2040, and that electric vehicles may be economically competitive in most African countries.
Sooner than expected
The study noted that the cost of solar power and batteries has fallen significantly in recent years, and that more and more affordable EVs are entering the local market.
The suggestion that electric vehicles may be economically viable in Africa before 2040 is more true in countries with more stable economies and access to better financing.
The research showed that off-grid solar charging offers a cost-effective, viable solution for the continent’s electricity infrastructure challenges.
“Many models have assumed that combustion engine vehicles will continue to dominate in Africa through mid-century,” said the paper’s lead author, Bessie Noll, a senior researcher at ETH Zurich.
“Our findings show that, under certain conditions, e-mobility is feasible sooner than many people think.”
The key to increased EV adoption on the continent is utilising charging stations that are not grid-linked or dependent on unreliable electrical infrastructure.
“We wanted to know what would happen if the charging system were designed specifically for daily demand,” explains second lead author Christian Moretti, a research scientist at PSI.
“Even we were surprised by the results. These systems are significantly cheaper than is often assumed, and in many contexts they are even more reliable than the existing electrical grid.”
The team’s calculations indicate that a compact solar system is sufficient for a small EV that only travels around 50km per day.
The study also highlighted that financing remains the biggest obstacle to e-mobility transition, as in many African countries, loans are expensive because investments are considered risky.
Stable economies like those of South Africa and Botswana have allowed motorists to adopt EVs more easily than in other African nations.
“Africa is not a single, uniform market,” said Noll.
“The framework conditions vary enormously, as does the point at which e-mobility makes sense financially.”
She added that if financing costs can be reduced, the EV transition throughout Africa will continue to accelerate dramatically.
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(Source: TopAuto)